It could take 11 months for Maine to return to “normal” following a pandemic that has infected thousands and killed hundreds since it came to the state in March.
That’s based on vaccination rates compiled by Bloomberg News that says more than 167,000 doses statewide have been administered.
But what exactly does returning to normal mean? According to White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, it would require between 70 percent and 85 percent of the population to be vaccinated. That would be when we would reach herd immunity, where enough people are protected from the virus to make spread unlikely.
Based on two-dose vaccines and our current rate of 1,339,525 doses per day, it could take the United States 11 months before it vaccinated 75 percent of the population, Bloomberg reported. However, that number does not distinguish between the first and second doses.
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But the timeline could significantly sway either way, according to Bloomberg. A number of factors could change the country’s current trajectory including the vaccination rate speeding up, large disruptions in vaccinations ( such as this week’s snowstorm) and people deciding not to get vaccinated altogether.
Worldwide, returning to normal could take about seven years as richer, Western countries are currently vaccinating at higher rates.
The U.S. right now is doing significantly better than other countries, such as our neighbor to the north. At its current rate, it could take Canada 10 years to vaccinate 75 percent of its population. But that timeline is expected to shorten significantly because Canada, more than any other country, has contracts to buy more vaccines per person, Bloomberg reported. Israel, on the other hand, has reached 75 percent within two months.
So where does that leave Maine? Maine is currently in phase 1B of its vaccination plan, vaccinating health care workers, long-term care facilities and first responders. The state is currently vaccinating Mainers ages 70 and up and is on pace to start vaccinating Mainers 65 and up starting the first week in March.
Based on two-dose shots and not distinguishing between first and second doses, Maine’s current vaccination rate is 5,487 vaccines per day based on its population, according to Bloomberg.
That means, at the current rate, it could take 11 months to vaccinate 75 percent of Maine’s population — or just over 1 million people — putting it at about the same rate as the rest of the country.
As of Friday, 176,961 Mainers have been vaccinated with 130,551 receiving their first dose and 46,410 receiving their second dose, according to the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Maine currently has the ninth-highest vaccination distribution in the country with 11.76 per 100 people getting vaccinated, based on information provided by Bloomberg.
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However, if fewer people get shots, the coronavirus could continue to spread.
The number of new coronavirus cases has been lower in recent days with the state’s 7-day average continuing to fall.
The new case rate statewide Friday was 1.98 cases per 10,000 residents, and the total case rate statewide was 304.83.
Maine’s seven-day average for new coronavirus cases is 285.4, down from 299.1 a day ago, down from 362.9 a week ago and down from 522.4 a month ago. That rate has been steadily falling since Jan. 14, when it peaked at 625.6.
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