President Donald Trump is lagging Democratic challenger Vice President Joe Biden by large and nearly equal margins in both Maine and New Hampshire, according to a poll released Thursday.
A Granite State Panel survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between July 16 and Tuesday of 1,893 likely general election voters in New Hampshire found that 53 percent would choose Biden with just over three months until the November election, compared to 40 percent for Trump.
The poll is the latest bad news for Trump in northern New England, and comes the same week as a similar Colby College poll conducted in Maine. The Republican president was competitive in both states, but ultimately lost them in 2016. His campaign has put them on a short list of states it wants to flip in 2020.
In 2016, Trump lost Maine to Democrat Hillary Clinton by 3 percentage points but won the more conservative 2nd Congressional District by 10 points. The fight for New Hampshire was even tighter. Clinton edged Trump out by roughly 2,700 votes and a 0.4 percent margin, which was the second-closest state in the nation that year.
Both surveys found Biden’s lead was attributable to his support from women, college-educated voters and young voters. In New Hampshire, the former vice president is leading women voters by 32 percentage points, while Trump has a much more narrow lead with men at 7 points. Biden also leads Trump in under-35 and college-educated demographics.
One area of deviation was favorability. While 51 percent of Maine voters favored Biden compared to 39 percent for Trump, New Hampshire voters only like Biden slightly more than Trump — 40 percent to Trump’s 38 percent. Only 5 percent said they disliked both Trump and Biden. In the summer of 2016, both candidates were unpopular, according to a UNH Survey Center poll, with Clinton receiving a 36 percent favorability rating to Trump’s 32 percent.