AUGUSTA, Maine — State revenues are behind projections by nearly $27 million, with not a single revenue category meeting expectations in September, at the end of the first three months of the budget year.

“All three of our top lines and other large lines on the revenue side are down in September,” said Finance Commissioner Sawin Millett in an interview Monday. Among the top revenue sources are the individual income tax, sales tax, corporate income tax and the tobacco taxes.

“It certainly is not a positive picture for either the September collections or the three months to date compared to our budget,” he said.

The largest source of taxes is the individual income tax, projected to bring in more than $1.4 billion this budget year. In September, estimated income taxes paid by both the self-employed and withholding payments were below estimates, putting the income tax $4.7 million in the red after three months.

The second largest source of tax revenue is the sales tax, projected to bring in a little more than $1 billion this budget year. It was slightly below estimates in September, down $943,000, and for the three months is below estimates by $9.5 million, although Millett said most of that was from a one-time adjustment to meet accounting rules made in August.

“The individual income tax was down by $6.2 million in September alone,” Millett said, “and most of that is in withholding and that is always a concern because that is a relatively current barometer of what payrolls are showing.”

He said the corporate income tax is below estimates by $13.2 million after three months, which he attributed in part to companies taking advantage of changes in the tax code that allow faster deductions for investments in equipment.

“Some of that also shows up in the individual income tax because so many small businesses are pass-through entities where they pay the income tax on the business through their individual income tax,” he said.

Rep. Peggy Rotundo, D-Lewiston, the lead Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, said those tax cuts are just the first of many that will result in less state revenue during the next two-year budget cycle.

“We’re estimating a loss of $399 million over the two years,” she said. “This is a very troubling picture.”

Rotundo said with all of the major revenue sources behind estimates after three months, she is very concerned there may be a trend developing and not just “month-to-month blips” in state revenue. She said part of the revenue shortfall can be attributed to tax cuts.

“The sales tax is very soft and that concerns me,” she said. “It’s a very good indication of what average Maine families have in their pockets to spend.”

Sen. Richard Rosen, R-Bucksport, the co-chairman of the Appropriations Committee, said he also is concerned about the soft revenues. But he said while most of the report is bad news, there are a few bright spots.

“We see that the restaurant and the lodging tax is up over last year,” he said. “That is an indication that we have had a better tourism season than many expected.”

But those two subgroups of the sales tax make up a small percentage of all the sales tax revenues. Other areas have little growth and building supplies were off by nearly 4 percent.

Rosen said he is disappointed with the overall revenue numbers from the first three months of the budget year. He said income tax withholding is a concern because it reflects the health of the consumer economy.

“The number of people employed and the hours of the work week are critical to the ability of the economy to provide people with disposable income,” he said.

Millett said he would not speculate on whether the revenue forecasting committee would re-project revenues when they meet next month. He said that depends in part on the economic forecast the Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission develops.

“There are so many areas where we are failing to meet projections,” Rotundo said. “We have a soft economy and a significant problem.”

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85 Comments

  1. Out of control deficit spending by the Federal govt is slowly strangling this nation.  It will make the rich grow richer and the poor become poorer.  Romney and Ryan would be a step in the right direction, but even their proposed cuts won’t even begin to be enough to right this sinking ship.

    1. With the Romney/Ryan tax plan the deficit will do nothing but rise, while they wait for the job creators, who will never create jobs, to create jobs with their tax cuts the deficit will soar.  Then in 2016 the Democrats will be elected to clean up the mess and like this year the Democrats are not cleaning up the GOP/Bush fast enough so the R’s are trying to get back in to create another mess.
      Lets let Obama clean up the mess in the next four years and then the R’s can try to get in to create another mess.
      OBAMA/BIDEN-2012

      1. Obama has increased the national debt more in 3 1/2 years than Bush did in 8 years. Instead of cleaning the mess up, he is making it worse

        1. According to the US Treasury Department, on the day Obama took office, the deficit was $1.3 trillion. It is now $1.089 trillion, which in most books is an improvement, although not as much as most would like.  Imagine how much better it would be if the republicants would have worked with the democrats instead of deciding from the beginning to oppose all policies that would have increased employment.

          1. The national debt is over 16 Trillion Dollars right now, which is much higher than when Bama Boy gave us Hope and Change four years ago. Hard to face for a democrat, but Obama has been a mediocre president, at best.

          2. Any debt is serious if the debtor does not have the income to pay it. While $16 trillion is a huge number, cutting income by reducing revenues will certainly make it worse.
            The recession Bush put us in was far worse than most economists estimated, and therefore the steps Bush and Obama took were not strong enough for a speedy recovery.
            The idea that reducing taxes for the “job creators” will increase business and therefore hiring is obviously wrong. If it were true then why have the companies not been hiring since they have had the Bush tax cuts for nearly 10 years.
            Obama’s policies have been successful in reducing the deficit, the difference between income and expenses. Because of the underestimation of the hole we were in, and because republicans have blocked every plan put before Congress the improvement in the economy is taking longer than hoped for, but not longer than economists predict.
            Do we really want to repeat the policies that got us in this mess to begin with?
            Without a combination of reduced spending and increased revenue there is no way out. Unfortunately the republicans would rather bring this country to the brink of economic collapse than to cooperate and compromise with the democrats. They have even refused a $1 tax increase for every $10 in reduced spending.

          3. I disagree and say Mr. Obama is an Exceptional president in times so difficult as to be almost without precedent. Consider what the GOP would have done with:

            The economic crash – withdraw social services and then stick taxpayers with the secondary costs of even more emergency services, homeless shelters and crime than we currently have, rather than taking a preventative approach.

            GM – let them go bankrupt and lose even more jobs and tax revenue. GM is now making record profits, thanks to the Obama Administration not forcing them to declare bankruptcy.

            Unemployment – no extensions to unemployment benefits, leading to a substantially more complete halt in commercial activity when people couldn’t afford to buy necessities, which would have made the economic crash many times worse than it was.

            Unemployment – Recovery and reinvestment Act jobs to repair and replace broken infra-structure would not have been funded due to the GOP’s perceived need for “smaller government”. More people would still be out of work and not spending money, making the economic crash many times worse than it was.

            No, I think the only mediocrity going on right now is within the ranks of the GOP and I’ll vote accordingly. I can still remember “W” standing on the deck of that battleship with a big victory banner as he sailed off into retirement and left the country in the worst set of circumstances since the Great Depression. The fact that the problems are so severe that they can’t be neatly wrapped up in one term just makes me want to vote for President Obama even more.

          4. Obama burned through five trillion dollars in less than four years. I respect your opinion, but I don’t agree with it.

          5.  Read the papers or watch the news. The Deficit is over 16 trillion. Funny how the Dems. have forgotten in Obama first two years the Dems. control everything. That’s when Obama told the GOP they could get on board if they wanted, but he didn’t need their in put or votes. This is when Obama told them “elections have consequences.”  Then OOPS, the midterm election and the GOP gets the house back. But that didn’t stop Obama…still his way or the high way. He has not compromised once. I don’t give a crap how much spin Obama has put on it. And don’t tell me that didn’t happen, cause I was unemployed during most of that time and set right at home watching Obama make those statements a number of different times. So don’t blame all this on the GOP. Most everything he has done in the pass four years has been a failure. So now he want me to believe  he will make the right decisions in the next four years? I would rather try someone else. I’ve  had enough of four years of “it’s Bush fault.” Obama told us if he couldn’t fit it in four years he shouldn’t be reelected. This is the one thing I do agree with him on.

          6. The national debt is 16 trillion. The deficit is 1.089 trillion according to the US Treasury Department. Just google it. The deficit is the difference between the revenue, or income, and the national debt.
            Just because the democrats have a majority in one or both houses of Congress does not mean they control everything. In the Senate it usually takes a 60/40 vote to pass a bill. In the House I believe it is also a 60/40 vote, but could be wrong on that. The point is that a simple majority, 51%/49%, is not enough to pass a bill into law.
            So you would rather support a party that took a surplus and turned it into a deficit after 8 years by starting two unfunded wars and an unfunded medical program?
            Obama has compromised many times, the most notable in agreeing to spending cuts, but the republicans would not agree
            to a tax increase of 1/10 of the spending cuts.
            When we were on the brink of default and our credit rating was lowered, the rating agency specifically said it was due to the republicans refusing to work with the democrats. Look that up.

          7.  House only requires a simple majority. The 60/40 rule only applies to the Senate, but that’s all it takes.

          8. Thanks. I probably should have looked that up myself, considering I am always quoting facts and telling other readers to look it up.

          9. you are correct the national debt is 16 trillion dollars. it was 10.6 trillion on Bush’s last day in office meaning Obama has increased the debt 5.4 trillion in almost 4 years. on Clinton’s last day in office the national debt was 5.7 trillion meaning Bush increased it 4.9 trillion in 8 years. this is fact, simple math, no Democratic distortion using comparisions to % of GDP. and it is growing by 3 BILLION DOLLARS A DAY!

        2. It would be nice if you used facts in your post.  The debt was 5.8 trillion 9/2001 and 11.9 trillion 9/2009 that is an increase of 6.1 trillion the debt now is approximately 16. trillion an increase of 4.1 trillion,  I don’t think 4.1 trillion is greater than 6.1 unless you are using Romney and Ryans math.   I suggest you check with your local school and use their math in calculating any numbers. 

          1. i did use facts in my post. several sources including a liberal one CBS News article by Mark Knoller March 19, 2012.  you do realize in your post you are referencing 9/2009 which is 9 months into Obama’s term. you are lumping Obama debt onto Bush, typical liberal trick. Bush increased the national debt 4.9 trillion during his 8 year term, Obama has exceeded  that in little over 3 1/2 years. my math skills are just fine, thank you

          1. don’t give up. someday you might actually be able to participate in intelligent discussion instead of bouncing your dumb comments off serious posts

    2. Seriously??  

      Their plan is to shift more to the states…and where do you think that is going to come from?  The rearranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic is a shell game with no end plan, (and no beginning for that matter)!Math is still a science…even in an election year~~

    3. Haven’t you been paying attention?

      Romney and Ryan Want to Steal all the Life Boats and replace them with a Coupon for a free trip to the Bahamas!

      LOL

    4. First of all, this is an article about State budgets.  Your comment is relevant, but in a way that you did not intend.

      Here is the truth:

      The Romney/Ryan plan is to reduce Federal spending, yes.  But the reality is, that those ‘savings’ will become expenses on the State and local level.  The Romney/Ryan plan effectively kicks the can down the road, it does not solve the problem.

      1.  So…A guy who made billions through outsourcing and relocating American manufacturing companies and jobs to Asia now wants to externalize costs from the Federal Government to the State Government? Could it be that Mr. Romney is a one-trick-pony bent on self-preservation? How could such an individual possibly lead a nation of three hundred million people? Oh, right. He Shouldn’t.

    5. Are tax breaks for the wealthy creating more revenue and jobs as was the promise  ?

      “Romney and Ryan would be a step in the right direcrtion.”

      That is true enough depending upon where YOU want to go.
      I can’t take that away from you.
      But what is doing the same things over and over again, expecting different results called ?
      Why would you want take us all there ?

  2. state revenues heading south, and turning red. like the fall leaves of the season. could lepage be in the fall of his term. 27 m underwater. is there a plan  b  for the gov. lets hope so, times a wasting and  its going to be 399 m in 2 years.  this is in deed a very troubling picture.

  3. Does ANYONE in Disgusta understand budgets and economics??  First we were in the hole then we had a surplus now were back in the hole….Maybe LePage can hire his wife to balance the budget.  OY.

    1.  Don’t give him any ideas.R’s are great at nepotism.Nobody who cares about this state can say LePage,Mayhew and the rest of the revolving door has done anything but ruin us.Notice how there weren’t any big cries when he left the RGA- run by Bob(vaginal ultrasounds)McDonnell?Even they don’t want him around.

      1. Yes it’s like Larry (Millett) Moe (LePage) and Curly (Mayhew) are running around the state house saying ‘woo woo woo woo.’  It would be nice to have an actual leader who understands basic economics 101 and accounting 101.  Sigh.

    2. Just when did we have a surplus? We haven’t had a REAL balanced budget in years. Augusta has to get rid of all the gimmicks they have been using and passing on for years to get a real balanced budget. I don’t know if what LePage is doing is all right or not. But at least it’s not the same old same old, because that hasn’t worked for the pass twenty years.

        1. Thanks for the link.  It shows the Republicans doing what they do best, destroying surplus and sending the economy into a spiral my choking off public jobs, secondary jobs that rely on public jobs (e.g. restaurants), government bond projects that create jobs and also government stimulus that creates jobs.

          In return the wealthy get more money, which they put in the Cayman Islands or reinvest in profitable investments in China.

          1.  Thanks, Spruce.  Sounds exactly like what Romney and Ryan have in mind … along with intrusion into personal lives (bedrooms and uterii come to mind) and cramming religion down everyone’s throats.  They are scary people!

      1. LePage “balanced” his first budget by reneging on promises to retirees and putting many of them into low enough income brackets to qualify for state aid.
        .
        He “balanced” his next budget by kicking tens of thousands off health coverage, many of whom are working poor who have no other options (except much more expensive emergency room care),
        .
        The ignorant arrogant fool in the Blaine House isn’t just robbing Peter to pay Paul (well, Paul’s buddies that is), he is “saving” money by driving up costs.
        .
        We elected a flam flam man who previously made his living convincing very gullible people that poor quality and damaged merchandise is actually a “great buy”. 
        .
        Now he’s trying to sell us all damaged goods and poor quality decisions and pretends this shell game is accomplishing something more than sending Maine into the tank.
        .
        For the first time since these measures have been published Maine is now the WORST state in the nation for income growth and also the WORST state in the nation for job growth.
        .
        The LePage legacy.

          1. So, isn’t the Party-line  “WORK WILL SET” people like “YOU”, the damned 47%,  our scapegoats, “FREE” ?

            So where are all of those 1% er “job creators ” jobs ?
            THAT is the bottom line on why the conservatives’ economic theory has failed,
            and the State’s tax revenue is below what is needed to run it.

    3. Stay tuned for more of LePew’s shell game tactics.  

      Reclaim Maine       Vote Democrat 2012

      1. No one in Augusta can give an honest answer 98% of the time all we the people of Maine get out lies . The only reason those people in both houses want the job is for the benefits an that’s it

  4. Rupublican Rosen, we had a good tourist season, yeah, so, does the average Mainer no good,
    if you go to work each day, Rosen, anyone who does, could tell the economy is in the tank, and by the way, good time for the Rupulicans to cut some more poor peoples benefits, you know, them lazy bums. Do not vote Republican, this what we are experiencing came from George W. Bush, R.

    1. What Republicans do best:  destroy surplus and send the economy into a spiral by choking off public jobs, secondary jobs that rely on public jobs (e.g. restaurants), government bond projects that create jobs and also government stimulus that creates jobs.

      In return the wealthy 1% get more money, which they put in the Cayman Islands or reinvest in profitable investments in China.

      The new state of crisis is then used to hamstring the government even more, letting greedy corporations take over more and more of our lives and reducing our freedom.  It’s called monopoly, and I’m not talking the game.

      1. SpruceDweller,  This article is about state revenues coming up short.  This state has almost always come up short.  And your typical rant is always about the “1%”, the Cayman Islands, hamstringing the government, and greedy corporations.  Anybody with a brain who is reading your repetative boring comments has got to be rolling their eyes right now.  Has it ever occured to you that sometimes the “greedy government”  may be hamstringing taxpayers?

        1. As soon as you insult me, you lose credibility and make Republicans look bad.  Rather than respond in kind, my goal is to raise the quality of debate on this forum. 

          So, let’s remember that Clinton left office with a balanced budget and no deficit whatsoever.  Given that the GOP is currently raving about reducing the deficit, Clinton should be their hero.

          http://www.factcheck.org/2008/02/the-budget-and-deficit-under-clinton/

          http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/sep/23/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-says-his-administration-paid-down-deb/

          Bush came in, cut taxes on the wealthy, and the deficit zoomed up.

          LePage cut taxes on the wealthy, no extra jobs result, and down the drain goes our budget.

      1. Yes, Maine people are so stupid that they cannot look at the last 30 years to know, democrats ideology will lead to larger state government…sort of like the obese federal govt…..Vote  for democrats mean a larger government, not a better economy.

      1. So where are the all the jobs that the mythical “job creators” were supposed create in Maine or  anywhere in America, for that matter  ?

        The easy thing do would be throw your foolishness about lies back in your face, but that would be going down to your own low information, faith, not reality, based voter level. 

        The more important point is that this article shows that whole conservative tax cut for the wealthy economic theory has been a failure on first the National and now the State level.

        Just because people believe in something, does not mean it really works.

        So what is doing the same things over and over again expecting different results called ?

        Now Waldo,  based on the results, based on the conservatives’ record of economic nonperformance as documented in this article, based on the number of jobs created in America by the right’s mythical ‘job creators’ why shouldn’t people
        vote straight progressive and end the economic pain of the conservative’s
        failed economic theory ?

  5. Some people want us to spend more money on bonds?  This is a good reason not to pass any bonds until the States economy is in better shape.

  6. So would it be safe to say that the LePage tax cuts are not stimulating the Maine economy??  I’m simply shocked!!

    1. Most of the income tax cuts take place 1/1/13.   Of course Ms Rotundo was quick to point one of the ones that has taken place and blame the total shortfall on that.   That cut allows expenses to be taken sooner and therefore only shifts revenue.  She did not point out the cuts in sales tax on aircraft and repairs which has boosted work and employement in that industry.

      1. Actually I’m quite aware of that just as I’m aware that business expansion is based on demand for product, not on the tax rate of the business (owner).  Trickle down economics do not and have not ever worked. 

  7. Revenue projection can’t be easy and I know it has to be done but it’s like watching a tennis match — Up, Down, Even, Down, Down, Up. Doesn’t seem to matter who is the governor. Makes you wonder how anyone can forecast revenues out 10-20 years like one of the VP candidates.

    The semi-annual reports of the Revenue Forecast Committee going back to 2003 are available online. Might make interesting reading for someone with lots of time on their hands or help them get to sleep.

    1.  I remeber LePage fanboys (and girls) getting all excited when they replaced the non partisan  Revenue Forecast personnel with Heritage Foundation weenies. They said that NOW we’d see us some good forecasting by gosh!
      .
      heh

  8. It’s not going to matter too much longer.
    as soon as the next great war starts, state economies will be meaningless.

  9. Note to socialists, most reasonable people believe less revenue coming into the government is a GOOD THING! This means more money is staying in the pockets of individuals and the economy. If there is a deficit, perhaps we should try spending a little less.

    1. Maine is number 50 out of 50 states in job creation and income growth since LePage took over (we weren’t before).
      .
      The WORST in the nation – and each any every other state faces the same national economy as we do.
      .
      LePage is a miserable failure.

      1. I have not much good to say about the current administration, but also feel the need to blame Maine’s many-decades reliance on tourism for what we are currently stuck with. Seems logical that a tourism-based economy would follow the direction of those that contribute to it and be generally worse off than places with a larger percentage of productive work force. Maine needs a stronger, larger and more productive middle class to stop being dependent on federal money and vacation expenditures from people who make a living in other parts of the country. This has been true since the 1950’s and will continue to be true until the necessary steps are taken. The failure, if one is to be argued, of the LePage Administration (among others) lies with their insistence in addressing Maine’s problems through the local business community, meanwhile completely ignoring the needs of the working class on the tired and ineffective theory of trickle-down economics. Someone needs to represent the people who work as employees in the State of Maine. Develop the employment base and outside business might see a reason to come here. Develop the employment base and tax revenue will increase with it. Develop the employment base and commercial activity will increase with it.
        President Obama and Vice President Biden are right, it must be developed from the middle, outward.

        1. Interesting theory, but it does not work in this case. Tourism is UP the last 2 years, but our earnings and job growth are way off from the rest of the region.
          .
          In fact your point about tourism shows that LePage has done an even WORSE job then one might think at first glance since he’s had a boost from that sector and STILL can’t keep up with the rest of the country.

  10. Perhaps someone can explain this to me. A month ago I bought a package of four (4) Portuguese Rolls to make sandwiches with at Hannaford’s. They were the least expensive choice ……..I thought……..at $2.29. When I checked out, my total came to $2.45. Turns out, a package of 4 rolls from the bakery department counts as a SNACK!!!! I was charged 7% sales tax or $0.16.
    When I went to the Customer service desk the young man very patiently explained to me that it was because they were from the Bakery; and if I had bought six items………a bag of six rolls or my bag of four rolls  and perhaps two donuts………..then it wouldn’t be a snack anymore. Go figure!  But if I happened to pay for those same four rolls with a SNAP card, why then there would be no tax at all!!!
    Even worse, when I bought a pint of Ben and Gerry’s ice cream………..which is a SNACK……..there is no tax on that!!!!

    1. Poor people need to save their money for cigarettes, alcohol and drugs. That is why you need to be taxed more. Also, we don’t want to make them feel any shame for living off of your tax dollars so we make sure they get nice debit cards to remove the stigma once associated with being a bum. 

      1. I’m actaully not opposed to the SNAP benefit being paid on a debit card. Most of the mistakes in a cash register was due to the inaccuate counting of the older style paper Food Stamps. The EBT card is better for the store, better for the cashier, and I believe; better overall for the taxpayer. But, the method of taxation here is just plain crazy!

  11. Well, what do you know? We traded all our decent paying manufacturing jobs for service sector jobs and their “public assistance” wages, so now income tax revenue is down. Whoda thunk it? We also forgot to allow for the drop in sales tax caused by a complete lack of disposable income when you work for minimum wage. Whoda thunk it? We are also watching our social services expenses go up exponentially, because all the new “jobs” that are being created do not pay enough for people to live on without a lot of government cheese. Whoda thunk it? Is there ANYTHING that doesn’t take Augusta and Washington by surprise?

  12. Just a few days ago the tourist industry has saying what a great Augusta they had.  Guess they didn’t pay there taxes on the great August.

  13. Not a surpise. It is the Lepage effect.
    .
    Since LePage took office the average Mainer’s earnings went from about average growth relative to other states to us having the WORST growth in the entire country.
    http://bangor-launch.newspackstaging.com/2012/03/29/business/maine-earnings-growth-ranks-worst-among-states-incomes-lowest-in-region/
    .
    I know some clever types are getting their fingers all warmed up to make claims about it being Obama’s “fault”.  If you try one of those commenters please do explain how all 49 others states did better than Maine – in the exact same “Obama economy”.
    .
    Maine is at #50 in both income growth and at #50 in job growth for the first time since these measures have been published.  Another LePage “first”. Ugh

  14. Individual income taxes down — where are all the JOBS that our not-so-esteemed Guvnah promised … ???

  15. Imagine, no meetings planned.  All are on cruise control and are seeking to be career politicians  The people of Maine should not tolerate it and call for their dismissal and put them back into private life.  We desperately need term limits and people who will serve the public……

  16. Tax reductions that favor the wealthy, lip service to the middle class, so-called “Maine Open for Business” that has done zero to benefit middle-class and poor socio-economic status citizens, the type of Republican-right policies that on a national scale created the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression – this economic report is the tip of the iceberg.

    And where do you suppose the Gov. and his minions will look to recoup the losses – more reductions that will destroy the middle-class, bury the poor, gut public education, put our hospitals and health-care facilities deeper into the red, add more crushing burden to municipalities, etc. The reality is that the “tax reductions” that the Republicans are bragging about  while they campaign for re-election are actually de facto taxes on all of the above, excluding the top socio-economic tier.

    Maine has produced many outstanding Republican leaders in its history. Those women and men, unlike today’s Republican party, opposed extremism and Maine and the nation were better because of them. Today’s crop blatantly lie and continue to engineer policies and legislation intended to undermine the people. Their slogans are catchy, but their actions are destructive.

    Votes for those extreme-right phonies in the Maine Legislature, for Congress, and the presidency -demagogues, duplicitous plutocrcats,  anti middle-class and poor – are votes against ourselves. Their strategy has been to divide and conquer and it has been working. It is time for people to wake up.
       

      

  17. The second largest source of tax revenue is the sales tax, projected to bring in a little more than $1 billion this budget year.

    ..if I had a billion dollars……..

  18. Revenue in the red, I don’t think so. This makes it sound like our money is already theirs, and its our fault they have a shortfall. We the general public know its pretty simple that no jobs equals no income, and therefore equals no spending and the payment of taxes, or a shortfall in revenue. So watch and see how Augusta gets what they consider theirs out of the Maine people…I have already lived this years ago, and its not pretty.

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