AUGUSTA, Maine — The first poll conducted since the March filing deadline for congressional candidates shows Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat Cynthia Dill holding early advantages in their U.S. Senate primary races.
The poll of 993 registered voters by the Maine People’s Resource Center was conducted from March 31 through April 2 and had an overall margin of error of 3.11 percent.
MPRC is affiliated with the Maine People’s Alliance, a progressive statewide advocacy group. The poll favored Democrats over Republicans 39 percent to 29 percent, with the rest of those polled unenrolled.
Summers, Maine’s secretary of state, had the most support among six GOP candidates who are vying to succeed U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe.
Snowe, a three-term senator generally acknowledged to be a shoo-in, announced in March that she would not seek reelection, a move that prompted several Republicans to get into the race and several big-name Democrats to consider a challenge.
According to the MPRC poll, 27.6 percent of people surveyed said they would vote for Summers if the primary were held today. State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, a former gubernatorial candidate, was next at 12 percent.
Former Maine Senate President Rick Bennett had 7.1. percent, followed by assistant Senate Majority Leader Debra Plowman at 5.7 percent. Small businessman Scott D’Amboise, the only GOP candidate who was in the race before Snowe dropped out, and Attorney General William Schneider were tied at 3.9 percent support.
However, 39.7 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided, a reflection that race is wide open. The margin of error for the GOP primary questions was higher, 5.5 percent, because the sample size was smaller.
University of Maine political scientist Mark Brewer said the poll doesn’t reveal too much because it’s still early.
“The numbers are all about name recognition at this point and that will change over the next several weeks,” he said. “For the Republicans, it will come down to how they distinguish themselves because a fair number will try to claim the conservative mantle.”
On the Democratic side, Dill had a slight edge in the four-way race with 20.3 percent, followed by former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap at 16.7 percent and state Rep. Jon Hinck at 6.2 percent. Portland home builder Benjamin Pollard had just 1.3 percent support.
Even more Democrats, 54.8 percent, were undecided, which could be a good sign for independent Angus King, the former two-term governor who many believe will get significant support from Democrats. The margin of error for the Democratic primary was 4.8 percent.
Brewer said he was surprised by Dill’s strong showing.
“I hadn’t considered that possibility; I thought Dunlap would sort of run away with [the nomination],” he said.
In a hypothetical match-up between King and the top Republican and Democrat, 56 percent of those polled said they would vote for King, followed by 21.8 percent for Summers and 12.2 for Dunlap. About 10 percent were undecided.
Brewer said King is clearly the favorite, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock.
“If the Democrats nominate a candidate who can take 25 percent of vote, then maybe a Republican can win it with high 30s,” he said.
The MPRC poll also asked voters in Maine’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts who they support.
In the 1st District, incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree leads Republican Jonathan Courtney, the current Senate majority leader, 61 percent to 28 percent with about 11 percent undecided.
“More and more, the 1st District is looking like a Democratic lock,” Brewer said.
In the 2nd District, incumbent Democrat Mike Michaud held a 53.1 percent to 36.7 percent advantage over Republican Kevin Raye, Maine’s Senate president, with 10.2 percent undecided.
“If I’m Michaud, I don’t love those numbers, but he is still ahead,” Brewer said.
Another poll question asked for an opinion on same-sex marriage, which will be the first question on the November ballot.
MPRC asked: “Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married in Maine?”
More than 43 percent said they strongly favored legalizing same-sex marriage, while 14.5 percent said they were somewhat in favor. More than 28 percent were strongly opposed and 11.7 were somewhat opposed.
Follow BDN reporter Eric Russell on Twitter @BDNPolitics.
Come on Charlie Summers. I know you can do it. Maine NEEDS U.
I think Illinois needs him BACK more…
Republicans have an edge!
They have all the wacko votes and the rest will be split between the Dmocrat and King.
33% is the magic number and insanity runs deep!
It’s a gonna be a close one!
I’m for Angus King but I have to ask, did the BDN go out of its way to find that unflattering online photo of Rep. Dill?
Would you rather they used the one of her using the Veterans’ memorial for step aerobics?
PM, does your support for AK depend upon how he would have voted on issues of importance to you?
In fact, how would one know how he would have voted on such issues?
LP, I was in Augusta during the time he was Governor. The Administration often took public positions on bills, primarily through testimony from King’s Commissioners or other representatives. Those positions were consistently pragmatic, often strongly pro-business and socially moderate. It was often the case that both parties had to negotiate with the Governor’s Office to reach reasonable compromise. King’s independence afforded him the opportunity to pursue public policy that was in the best interest of all of Maine, regardless of where the idea came from. I support King because, most often, he was the smartest guy in the room and he is the embodiment of “moderate.”
Re “King’s independence afforded him the opportunity to pursue public policy that was in the best interest of all of Maine…”
But until he says how in recent years he would have voted in the U.S. Senate on issues you believe most important, how do you know he would do better at representing your views of what’s right than the other candidates?
Charlie Summers = Howdy Doody at 50!
Angus we don’t need your beef….go collect your SSI….we need new blood….Aren:t you connected with Al Gore now?
A song for our times – Wind Energy Blues –
Vindkraftverk:
http://youtu.be/l-yo9CYv1mM
thanks for the info,I’ll use it
Summers is a joke and Angus will smash him to pieces. Dream on.
We need a woman in office. And not the kind of woman we already have. Go Cynthia Dill!
I think it’s about time we voted for a senator with breasts. After all, we’ve been voting for boobs long enough.
Good one!
Now that was funny. Some humor needed to be injected here.
What “kind” of woman do we already have? I think you biggots should not be allowed to vote.
You mean anyone who doesn’t agree with you should not be allowed to vote?
No. People who vote only based on gender (or race, or relgion, or sexual preference, etc) should not be allowed to vote.
Maybe you should move to Russia? Vladimir Putin would wholeheartedly agree with your views on democracy.
Nice picture of the attorney from Rhode Island, she is a self-declared progressive. Progressive means the the US Constitution is an impediment to progress, so throw it out.
If voting changed anything, they’d make it illegal.
Dill? Are you kidding me? When asked what spending she would cut, all she could come up with was Defense spending. Doesn’t she know that 1) Pentagon spending is already on the way down and 2) BIW and PNSY depend on defense spending? I am sure that those in southern Maine will be interested in work reductions and layoffs in Bath and Kittery!
And we must not forget that she is one of the bunch that want to make Maine (probably north of Augusta) a National Park. Is this the kind of thinking we want in Washington? I think not!
She would be the worst of all the candidates, by far!!
I don’t know…you may be giving Charlie Summers just a bit too much credit!
Where does it say that I support Charlie Summers or give him any credit?
At this time, I am in favor of Angus King. For the record, I am a registered Republican.
Good bye tommy!!
I think he’s saying maybe Summers deserves a look as the worst. By saying she is by far the worst, you are giving Summers credit for at least being quite a bit better than she is.
Bingo!!
Don’t put words in my mouth! That’s what you libs like to do. Take something out of context or not even there and make a big deal out of it!
I stand by what I did say – Dill is by far the worst candidate!!
Good bye TOMMY and LIB!!
I make mostly conservative choices in my life, Wally, but to anyone who likes to throw out “you libs”, I probably would be considered a lib. And, by the way, you are again giving credit to Summers, King and everyone else running. If you can’t see this, maybe you should take a course in logic to go along with the mandated anger management course.
Sorry for the repeat transmission.
WW, please explain why you favor AK v CS.
1) Electability; 2) “Stroke”. At this time, I favor AK. However, whether he gets my vote or not is still a question. I usually run into the former Governor at the grocery store in Brunswick. I look forward to asking him a couple of questions next time I see him. I will say that if he wants to be a Senator just to become part of the “DC Machine”, I will not vote for him. If he wants to be a part of the “DC Solution” and do the work of the people, specifically the people of the State of Maine, then I would feel compelled to vote for him. We’ll just have to wait and see.
WW re running into him in the grocery store:
Will he tell you how he would have voted in recent times upon the issues of interest to you?
This is particularly important since he isn’t saying whether he will vote with the Democrats or Republicans in organizing the Senate.
What right wing stupidity have you been listening to? Since Bush, Pentagon spending has nearly doubled. It may be going down just a bit now, but not nearly as much as that giveaway to the military industrial complex needs to come down. You people screech and whine about cutting government and how much you hate government, and then you stand there and defend the BIGGEST share by far of the discretionary government budget as you worship at the alter of the military industrial complex. You would crawl through a hurricane to give taxpaid subsidies to billionaire oil corporations, and then cut the minimum wage for people working in fast food restaurants. And then you people have the stomach-turning gaul to walk around spouting off about how much you love Jesus. If Jesus could see you TeaNuts in action, he would never stop throwing up.
Charlie Summers is leading the GOP pack because of his experience. Lets take a second to look over what he has done.
Worked for Senator Snowe for over a decade
Worked as the New England Director for the Small Business Administration
Successful State Legislator and Secretary of State
Navy Commander and veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan
Father of three children and devoted husband.
This man embodies everything we want to send to Washington DC. We need a strong voice for Maine who is willing to work with people across the aisle to fix the problems we face. Secretary Summers has a track record of that and will serve Maine well!
If he is in favor of the type radical governing philosophy that his boy LePage favors, then his resume means squat. But nice talking points by you!
Now, you say he “worked for”, “worked as”, “successful”, Navy Commander, Father….embodies everything we want to send to Washington???
Here are my questions…
1.What specifically did he do while working for Senator Snowe, (answer phones etc.?)
2.What specifically did he do as director of the New England SBA (give speeches or create jobs?)
3.What legislation has he passed? What has he accomplished as Secretary of State(outside of look pretty)?
4.Was he a supply officer or a combat officer?
5.Most fathers are devoted.
What makes Charlie Summers different than any other Republican or any other politician who would go to Washington or is he just another retread?
Goodbye CHARLIE!!
King screwed up the state so bad while gov. I would not vote for him if has the only one running!
For sure, things are so much better now!
Dill will be an excellent choice for the democrats. She is the sacrificial lamb that won’t split much of their votes away from King and hand the republicans another victory by default. Great move!
C’mon guys,
King has it by a landslide. The D’s pulled all their heavy hitters out so the vote would not be split, and the R’s have no one of substance. King has it on name recognition alone.
Summers is one of the “Two Charlies” along with that cement headed Webster. And he is a walking joke, an ALEC pawn, and a LeBUFFOON water boy. King will crush him.
cindy dill is a joke.
DILL ??????
Seriously?
Who did they poll?
First graders that she just bought ice cream cones for?
HAHAHAHAHA !
Summers is a joke and Angus will pound him to sand. He is a LePage waterboy and one of the two Charlies, including the numbskull Webster, and he has no credibility. Dream on.
Soo wtf happened to Scott D’Amboise? Is this article for those who just entered the race? I seriously hope he won’t be “forgotten” by this paper and the rest of the media as Ron Paul has! Let’s avoid that practice starting right now! Thank you!
He polled in the bottom with AG Schneider at 3.9%.
If you are supporting A king, maybe you should check out some of the skeletons in his closet;
http://tinyurl.com/ces7y66
Why would you even publish this stupid poll.
Everyone seems to forget what a horrible gov he was.
Is this the same Angus King who once upon a time left his key in the ignition of his car and it was stolen in his driveway and he wondered why. I could be wrong but I believe it was a convertable.
At this point I prefer Dunlap.
Charlie Summers is the “only” candidate with a history in helping small business.
Summers for Senate 2012
This is King’s to lose. He has extraordinary name recognition, and did mostly nothing as Governor, apart from giving children laptops with which to update their Facebook accounts and visit naughty web sites.
Why hasn’t Lepage taken the laptops away? Angus must have him too intimidated.
That’s a good question. Or, better yet, only give them to students who earn them through hard work and good grades. That, of course, is too much to expect of government in the hands of either party. Reward and encourage excellence? Why teach that particular lesson?
If Angus packed his camper and left on another cross country trip, he’d still kill these second rate candidates in the fall. What could have been a real exciting election is now a real yawner.
I am partial to Matt Dunlap – recently our Secretary of State and former Chairman of the Legislative IF&W Committee. It’s not only because I know Matt Dunlap, but also because I know that he is a very intelligent and an honest man. I wish everyone knew his qualities as a
benevolent human being in the way that I do.
Come on people don’t vote him in office again he done nothing for us as governor. Lets get someone new in office we can do better than king.
What did Cynthia do to earn the Lepage-style angry photo?
Hmmmmm………. move here from RI ?
Aaaaand the race is off…It’s pickle in the lead for the Dems trailing the GOP pimple, and sir windpipe in the lead.
Plowman for Senate 2012
Till the results are in you really have no idea how someone will vote, I lie to the people that call asking all the time BECAUSE IT IS NO ONES BUSINESS
Charlie, you may not want to do your Sieg Heil to Lepage when they are taking pictures.
Just because Maine people are
independent thinkers does mean an independent like former Governor
Angus King will practice bipartisan politics. Angus has stated he
will support Barack Obama. Angus is a true liberal. Many Mainers
feel we need an independent. Charlie Summers has an exceptional
record. Charlie Summers does not talk in circles like Angus King.
Charlie Summers is direct and to the point. Trust me if you want
liberal policies like former vice president Al Gore then Angus King
is your man. Please be very careful how you vote this November!
I like Angus King! I’m voting for him.