Politics
Our political journalists are based in the Maine State House and have deep source networks across the partisan spectrum in communities all over the state. Their coverage aims to cut through major debates and probe how officials make decisions. Read more Politics coverage here.
House Speaker Mike Johnson made his second trip to Maine for former Gov. Paul LePage on Wednesday, calling his 2nd District race “a top five race in America right now” as forecasters increasingly see Democrats winning the House.
The Republican in danger of losing his leadership post in the November election spoke to supporters at a meet-and-greet event at Sea Dog Brewing Co., telling them control of the chamber will come down to about 22 districts.
The speaker struck an upbeat tone even as his party’s national picture worsens. His own super PAC is pulling money from Republican incumbents elsewhere. The 2nd District, being vacated by four-term Democrat Jared Golden and won three times by President Donald Trump, is one of the few places where Republicans are playing offense.
“What you do here is not just for Maine,” Johnson said. “It’s for the entire country and the future of freedom.”
Decision Desk HQ, the BDN’s election results partner, gives Democrats a 77% chance of winning the House, up from 59% in July. LePage’s odds against State Auditor Matt Dunlap, the Democratic nominee, have held fairly steady throughout the campaign and now sit at 61%.
Republicans seem to be responding to that picture. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Johnson, is cutting off funding to help incumbents and moving $10 million into 16 other districts, including Maine’s 2nd, The New York Times reported Tuesday.
The 2nd District is another story. Republicans and their allies hold a $13.5 million to $10.1 million edge in general-election ads, according to AdImpact. The leadership fund and a group tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation have put about $10.7 million behind LePage, while House Majority PAC has $9 million backing Dunlap.
Johnson told the crowd to discount polls showing Republicans behind, arguing that GOP voters no longer answer pollsters. He also acknowledged the history working against him. A president’s party has gained House seats in his first midterm only twice in 90 years.
“Let’s run like we’re 10 points behind,” he said.
LePage tied his race to U.S. Sen. Susan Collins and asked the crowd to vote for both. He said he wants to join her as “the only Republican out of New England” in the House. The region has had none since Golden unseated two-term incumbent Bruce Poliquin in 2018.
“We need Susan back in Washington,” LePage said of the senator in a crucial race against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president.
Dunlap’s campaign pointed to Johnson’s record. The speaker steered last year’s Republican tax-and-spending law, which cut federal Medicaid funding, through the House. LePage backed key parts of that law, including work requirements for Medicaid recipients. House Republican leaders have used procedural rules to block votes on ending Trump’s tariffs.
“Paul LePage will be a rubber stamp for his party bosses in DC,” Harry Burke, Dunlap’s campaign manager, said in a statement.