More than a year before the election to succeed Republican Gov. Paul LePage, candidates for the Blaine House already are jump-starting the endorsements game.
There will be flood of endorsements for various candidates from lawmakers, organizations, newspapers, national groups and everyday Mainers. In many cases, their importance in the outcome of elections is questionable unless a big name — such as the former office holder in the seat — actually campaigns with the candidate.
However, endorsements announced this far ahead of campaign crunch time could have a behind-the-scenes impact for candidates trying to gain traction in parts of the state where voters are less familiar with them — particularly when it comes to raising campaign funds — or for simply boxing out would-be primary opponents. In fact, said University of Maine Political Science Professor Mark Brewer, endorsements matter much more now than they will after next June’s primary.
“Endorsements matter only to a small number of voters but they definitely matter to donors,” said Brewer. “
In Maine’s gubernatorial race, there are eight Democrats, which should make for a relatively wild, unpredictable primary election. In the end, endorsements could indeed tip the balance toward one candidate or another. But they have been slower to come from the left than on the Republican side. When the BDN recently asked Democratic candidates for endorsement lists, most demurred and the few who did respond seemed to prefer to categorize their backers as supporters, not endorsements.
The Republican side of the ticket has fewer candidates and former Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew was alone on the ticket for months. That makes the choice less complicated for potential endorsements, but it could make things uncomfortable for House Republicans who cast their lots with Mayhew before their floor leader entered the race.
Mayhew’s path was complicated considerably last week when House Minority Leader Ken Fredette and Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (who put his announcement on hold last week after the sudden death of his mother) both indicated they’re in. The proverbial earthquake in that race would be the entrance of U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, who has been noncommittal but said recently that she will make a final decision by the end of September.
Republicans in this race have the advantage of having a member of their party currently in the Blaine House, but LePage has not yet made any official endorsements other than offering general praise for Mayhew and Fredette on various occasions — and by constantly attacking Collins. But others in the GOP are not so mum. On Thursday, Mayhew used her Facebook page to announce that two state senators and 26 House members have endorsed her candidacy.
James Melcher, a University of Maine at Farmington political science professor, said Mayhew’s announcement of endorsements might indicate she was surprised by Fredette jumping in.
“It was very smart for her to get some of those names of people supporting her out there,” said Melcher. “You need to look like you’re building momentum. You want to look you’re a fortress that nobody can attack.”
On Friday, Fredette was asked about Mayhew’s endorsements during a radio interview on WGAN. Which sitting Republicans will stand behind Mayhew and Fredette — both of whom are long-time LePage allies who say they want to continue what he started — will be interesting to watch in the governor’s race and will provide interesting new dynamics later this year and in January when the Legislature re-convenes.
Fredette brushed the notion that there will be any tension created by endorsements aside.
“My hat is off to those who support other candidates and those who support me,” he said, though he did take a bit of a shot at Mayhew, who used to be registered as a Democrat.
“I am a lifelong Republican … before it was cool,” Fredette said.
Despite these early overtures, it’s likely that most sitting lawmakers will keep their endorsements to themselves until after the primary election. For some, that’s tradition. For others, it’s just smart politics.
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