Beware conventional wisdom; it has a nasty habit of being anything but wise.
After everyone had picked their collective jaws off the floor upon hearing of Sen. Olympia Snowe’s retirement, the very first thing we all saw was the birth of a brand new political meme, repeated endlessly by gleeful Democrats and overpaid pundits alike: Maine is now a Democratic pickup waiting to happen.
To believe this is analytical malpractice at its worst, and betrays a deep misunderstanding about Maine politics. This is something I’ve come to expect from a national punditocracy that can’t be bothered to do even their most basic homework on the state’s political culture.
Consider the otherwise very astute statistician Nate Silver. Desperate to weigh in on the Snowe retirement and sound provocative, he loudly proclaims that the Democrats are strongly favored to win Snowe’s seat, and tries to use very superficial drive-by analysis to make his case.
“Maine is quite homogeneous demographically; being elected from one of the two Congressional districts (as Ms. Snowe was repeatedly from 1978 to 1992) means that one will probably pass muster with voters in the whole state.”
Silver is of course right that Maine is homogeneous demographically, but he fails to understand that it is not homogeneous culturally. Of course, it would require actual time studying Maine to understand this, which is clearly too much to ask.
The rest of us understand that the beautiful people progressive Democrats from southern and coastal Maine do not like or get along with the more blue-collar, salt-of-the-earth Democrats from central and northern Maine.
Mike Michaud the conservative mill worker is not going to sell well to the limousine liberal Democrats in southern Maine. Chellie Pingree is simply not going to resonate with Democrats in economically depressed (former) mill towns in northern Maine. No, being popular in one of Maine’s districts does not mean you can sell statewide — indeed, quite the opposite is often true. Demography and culture are two very different things.
But, not understanding Maine, its people, or its political heritage doesn’t stop national pundits like Silver from trying to pretend. Thus is the genesis of the foolish notion that Snowe’s retirement will inexorably lead to a Democratic victory.
These were, of course, the same folks who told us the 2010 gubernatorial race was leaning Democratic, right up to the end, when Libby Mitchell came in third with 19 percent of the vote. Take them for what they are worth. Not much.
The reality is that yes, Snowe’s retirement did in fact deeply hurt the Maine GOP, and significantly lowered the party’s chance to retain the seat. Yet, suggesting that her absence means the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee should start icing some champagne ignores reality.
The reality? This race should be considered a pure toss-up.
Chellie Pingree is a deeply flawed statewide candidate. She is a lock-step liberal politician in a state that values political independence, and her Nancy Pelosi-style ideology will be a major liability outside her insular home base. Beyond that, she is an opposition researcher’s dream come true, with an army of skeletons in a very large, expensive closet.
Mike Michaud is infinitely more likable, but will have a very difficult time connecting with voters in the first district. He’ll have to explain his supposed pro-life position to southern Maine liberals, which could be particularly interesting if the Republicans nominate a pro-choice candidate (which they very well might).
And John Baldacci? The former governor who left office with an approval rating in the high 20s or low 30s? The same Baldacci who could only muster 38 percent of the vote in his re-election campaign? The same Baldacci who lost the liberal first district to Republican Peter Cianchette in the 2002 race for governor? This is not a strong candidate, folks.
For all the talk of the supposed “weak bench” of Republicans in Maine, any one of the names currently being seriously discussed — Steve Abbott, Peter Cianchette, Kevin Raye and others — have legitimate political experience, moderate profiles and excellent resumes. Underestimating their strength would be suicide.
Add the potential presence of viable independents like Eliot Cutler or former governor Angus King, and Democratic hopes deflate further.
There simply are no favorites in this race. Democrats should stop high-fiving each other and measuring the drapes in Snowe’s office, because their chances at winning this seat look no more promising than anyone else’s.
This will be a real race.
Matthew Gagnon, a Hampden native, is a Republican political strategist. He previously worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. You can reach him at matthew.o.gagnon@gmail.com and read his blog at www.pinetreepolitics.com.
“The rest of us understand that the beautiful people progressive
Democrats from southern and coastal Maine do not like or get along with
the more blue-collar, salt-of-the-earth Democrats from central and
northern Maine.” Very unfortunate stereotyping in this “two Maines” analysis. Disappointing.
It may be poorly worded, but there is no denying that there are “two Maines.” When Aroostook County refers to the area of Maine from Portland south as “North Massachusetts, it is a pretty good sign that there are some differences there.
Not even true. Lived in the Saint John Valley all my life, people don’t act like that up here. Never heard too much disdain towards southern Maine…only thing is that when we say southern Maine, we mean Bangor and below.
I, too, find it unfortunate – and ironic – that such rhetoric (on the north-south divide) is being used by this man. According to his online bio, Mr Gagnon currently resides in the DC area.
Bob: When I think of the “two Maines,” I think of that great interactive map that the BDN had online after the last gay marriage vote. It showed, by town, the yes votes (color A) and the no votes (color B). The pro gay marriage votes ran in a ribbon down I95 from Old Town to Kittery (with a few gaps, of course), and in many places along the coast. Oh, and also places like Bethel and Carrabassett Valley.
To me, it showed a more accurate representation of the two Maines: one Maine has considerable exposure to the outside world, and the other Maine is more insular.
Would love to find a link to that map…..
It is certainly not hard to see which way you lean. I suspect you don’t spend much time in Downeast or you would understand their politics more, as well. The state should really be two, so that the northern part of ME got some of their tax money back. The southern part of the state (most populated) rules the entire state. To think that this part of ME is dems is naive.
I agree with you on the big picture that this is not a clear Democratic pick-up and said as much in my BDN Pollways blog today, but some of your language sounds like a press release from a campaign operative.
One example is your statement that Rep. Pingree has an “army of skeletons in a very large, expensive closet.” The last time Republicans thought they had tough opposition research on Pingree, it was that she rode in the plane that belongs to the man to whom she is now married. That is not a scandal and the idea that she was hypocritical made no sense whatsoever.
By the way, Nate Silver always had LePage ahead.
I agree that discounting the GOP field would be foolish.
Describing Pingree as a “lock-step liberal” is a tell on Mr. Gagnon’s political leanings.
Why not “staunch liberal”? Are only Republican’s staunch?
Also, what “army of skeletons” is Gagnon referencing?
It’s doubtful today’s press holds back on anything skeletonesque.
The last three paragraphs say it all. If neither strong independent gets into the race it still will be wide open. The Democrats would have an edge but you just have to watch out for those pesky independents. Sending an independent to Washington maybe the unintended consequence of a wide open election process here in Maine.
You’re right about the independants. The inclusion of King and/or Cutler is the fly in the ointment for both parties.
Pingree and Michaud should stay in the House. Angus King wins Senate seat. Cutler waits to beat LePage.
And then Michaud challenges Collins.
No Michaud does not move up and challenge anyone.
I agree completely, I think King would do a fine job representing Maine in the Senate.
Oh, come on, there are so many big names jumping in (or potentially) on the Democratic and Independent sides. It is ridiculous to say they don’t have a leg up — some of them have essential incumbent status given their name recognition.
Mr. Gagnon is forgetting Mr. Sussman. If indeed he or his wife want that seat, they can spend whatever it takes to acquire it and they won’t flinch at destroying anyone who gets in their way.
Curious, Will Steve abbott give it a shot
Pingree shouldn’t win because she is unqualified. She is not even qualified to be a town selectperson. However, she is a Democrat, which means fellow Dems would vote for her regardless of her experience. I hope Cutler and King fight it out.