Despite detractors, tests do well predicting college success

Students from Oceanside High School in Rockland load on to buses after the first day of school in 2011.
Heather Steeves | BDN
Students from Oceanside High School in Rockland load on to buses after the first day of school in 2011. Buy Photo
By Patrick Mattimore, Special to the BDN
Posted Nov. 25, 2013, at 1:08 p.m.

In a Nov. 15 BDN OpEd, Howard P. Segal, a professor of history at the University of Maine wrote that “More and more prestigious American liberal arts colleges are making it voluntary to submit standardized test scores.”

While technically true, Segal’s assertion is a little like sounding an alarm bell for mad cow disease or killer bees. It’s a dramatic way to garner interest, but the reality is that only a handful of America’s most selective colleges have test-optional policies. All of U.S. News & World Report’s top 20 national universities, for example, require either the SAT or ACT, and many also demand that applicants submit SAT subject tests.

In fact, the real story is that despite naysayers’ attempts to kill college admissions tests for years, the use of the tests remains as vibrant as ever and the number of students taking the SAT and ACT increases every year.

There are very good reasons why America’s top colleges and universities continue to insist that students submit test scores.

First, the SAT and ACT are often the only objective measures by which students from different school systems may be compared.

Second, the SAT and ACT do a good job of predicting college success, particularly when combined with high school grade-point average and other standardized tests such as SAT II and AP exams.

Controversy surrounding the tests usually centers around the tests’ validity, specifically their predictive validity. A test is valid if it measures what it is supposed to measure or predicts what it is meant to predict.

The SAT and ACT are intended to predict freshman grades in college and, more generally, college success. The College Board, ACT, and independent researchers have conducted hundreds of validity studies regarding the tests.

Synthesizing those studies, Wayne Camara, vice president of research and analysis at the College Board wrote that students’ performance on the SAT is related to “freshman and cumulative college GPA” as well as to “the need for remediation when entering college” and “persistence and graduation.”

A 2006 report commissioned by the College Board and conducted by independent investigators analyzed whether high school GPA or the SAT was a better tool with which to predict college success. The researchers found that the SAT was “as good as or better than high school GPA in predicting high levels of college success.”

What’s more, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences reported that SAT scores predict performance as accurately for blacks as they do for majority applicants.

ACT’s research found that “if an institution wants its admission criteria to reflect collegiate academic proficiency or ultimate level of degree attainment, ACT scores should carry greater weight than high school grades.”

A 2012 study in the journal Psychological Science concluded that the SAT’s ability to predict a student’s future college success is strong, especially when used in conjunction with high school grades, and that the use of the SAT has equal predictive accuracy for students from across a range of socioeconomic groups. According to that research, “It is not the case that the SAT is nothing more than a proxy for socioeconomic status.”

What critics of the SAT and ACT often ignore is that the correlation between the tests and college success is artificially weakened because the students selected at various colleges have a fairly narrow range of scores. That is, the students admitted to Harvard, for example, will generally have scores bunched together at the high end, and a 2300 SAT — the highest possible score is 2400 — is not going to be a much better predictor than a 2200.

Were elite colleges to admit students they are already accepting and students now attending community colleges, there would be a considerably stronger correlation between SATs and college grades at those schools.

As long as the SAT and ACT remain an essential part of college admissions, they are likely to have their detractors.

However, unless and until we come up with a better means for objectively differentiating applicants to our nation’s top universities, we need those standardized college admissions tests.

Patrick Mattimore is an adjunct professor of law in the Temple University-Tsinghua University LLM program in Beijing, China, and most recently taught GRE test prep courses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Portions of this OpEd were previously published by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

http://bangordailynews.com/2013/11/25/opinion/despite-detractors-tests-do-well-predicting-college-success/ printed on September 22, 2014