Who will take home the Oscar? Maine film experts and BDN staffers share their thoughts

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Posted Feb. 19, 2013, at 9:23 a.m.
Last modified Feb. 19, 2013, at 11:45 a.m.
Emily Burnham, BDN reporter and writer of the BDN blog Culture Shock
John Clarke Russ | BDN
Emily Burnham, BDN reporter and writer of the BDN blog Culture Shock Buy Photo
Joel Crabtree, writer of the BDN blog Joel Talks Movies
Joel Crabtree, writer of the BDN blog Joel Talks Movies Buy Photo
Judy Harrison, BDN reporter and lifelong film buff
John Clarke Russ | BDN
Judy Harrison, BDN reporter and lifelong film buff Buy Photo
Chris Vincenty, co-owner of Reel Pizza Cinerama in Bar Harbor,
Linda Coan O'Kresik
Chris Vincenty, co-owner of Reel Pizza Cinerama in Bar Harbor,

Panelists

Emily Burnham, BDN reporter and writer of the BDN blog Culture Shock

Joel Crabtree, writer of the BDN blog Joel Talks Movies

Judy Harrison, BDN reporter and lifelong film buff

Chris Vincenty, co-owner of Reel Pizza Cinerama in Bar Harbor

The Oscars are broadcast at 8 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 24 on ABC. Reel Pizza Cinerama hosts a live broadcast Oscar party complete with food, drinks and prizes for formal attire and celebrity costumes. Admission is $15 and benefits Bar Harbor’s Summer Festival of the Arts.

Best Picture

What will win:

Burnham: “Lincoln,” because it’s an important, masterfully executed historical drama with a tour de force lead actor carrying it through. But watch out for “Argo.”

Crabtree: The consensus is that “Argo” is going to win this.

Harrison: The Academy loves Spielberg, and “Lincoln” still is hot now, due to the 150th anniversary of the Civil War.

Vincenty: You might think “Lincoln” would be a shoo-in, but “Argo” has won the most top awards leading up to the Oscars, usually a good indicator of who will take home this Oscar.

What should win:

Burnham: “Django Unchained,” because it’s a wild, bloody, alternately joyous and awful film about the most shameful part of human nature, and there’s never been anything like it before.

Crabtree: “Silver Linings Playbook” is a personal favorite of mine from 2012.

Harrison: “Django Unchained.” Much more than “Argo,” this is a film that parodies the last 50 years of Hollywood filmmaking and does it perfectly.

Vincenty: “Amour” is by far the most intense, raw, emotionally moving film in the category. But not to worry, it has a sure lock on winning an Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film.

Best Director

Who will win:

Burnham: Steven Spielberg, because he did a great job with “Lincoln” and it’s a safe choice.

Crabtree: David O. Russell has been putting out great work for years now, from “Three Kings” to “I Heart Huckabees” and “The Fighter.” He also happens to have Harvey Weinstein in his corner.

Harrison: Spielberg; the Academy loves him.

Vincenty: With Ben Affleck not in the running (see biggest snub) Steven Spielberg is the heavyweight that will be hard to beat.

Who should win:

Burnham: David O. Russell, in lieu of the multitude of great directors who weren’t nominated.

Crabtree: David O. Russell.

Harrison: Quentin Tarantino for out-Tarantino-ing himself; wait, he wasn’t nominated!

Vincenty: Michael Haneke’s unflinching approach to the subject in “Amour” allows his audience to feel real emotion towards the characters without being clouded by cheap sentimentality.

Best Actor

Who will win:

Burnham: Daniel Day-Lewis, because Daniel Day-Lewis.

Crabtree: This category really isn’t even fair. I mean, Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln? As great as the other nominees are, this race has been over for months.

Harrison: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Vincenty: Daniel Day-Lewis’ brilliant performance is sure to make this outstanding actor the proud owner of a third Oscar for Best Actor.

Who should win:

Burnham: Joaquin Phoenix (disturbing, relentless, visceral) or Bradley Cooper (vulnerable, passionate, sexy). But you just can’t beat DDL. Or can you?

Crabtree: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Harrison: There was no trace of any other character Daniel Day-Lewis has ever portrayed in his “Lincoln.”

Vincenty: In any other year, Joaquin Phoenix’s ferocious performance as the shell-shocked psychotic drunk, Freddie Quell, in “The Master” would have put him at the podium.

Best Actress

Who will win:

Burnham: It’s truly a toss-up between Jennifer Lawrence, the mesmerizing Quvenzhane Wallis and the hard-as-steel Jessica Chastain, but my money’s on the fierce, fabulous Lawrence.

Crabtree: Jennifer Lawrence.

Harrison: Jessica Chastain, so the Academy can thank the real person behind chasing down Bin Laden.

Vincenty: Jennifer Lawrence’s performance as the eccentric young widow in “Silver Linings Playbook” has already won her a SAG Best Actress Award, giving her the edge on the rest of the field.

Who should win:

Burnham: Jennifer Lawrence.

Crabtree: If you had asked me six weeks ago, I would have been pretty sure that Jessica Chastain would walk away with this one. But her support seems to have waned, and Jennifer Lawrence has become the frontrunner, with good reason.

Harrison: Jennifer Lawrence, who picked “Silver Linings Playbook” up and carried it on her back to a nomination it doesn’t deserve.

Vincenty: The 85-year-old French actress Emmanuelle Riva’s portrayal of Anne, a woman who suffers a stroke that confines her to a wheelchair, struggling to speak, is the most unflinching, exhaustive and haunting performance you are likely to see this year.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win:

Burnham: Robert de Niro.

Crabtree: All of the nominees have won Oscars before. I’m predicting Tommy Lee Jones because he was an early favorite, and it would be nice to honor his complementary performance to that of Daniel Day-Lewis.

Harrison: Tommy Lee Jones — it’s his turn again, and the Academy wants to honor the man he portrayed.

Vincenty: Tommy Lee Jones has made a career of late playing cantankerous old men. This will finally pay off for his role as Thaddeus Stevens, the cantankerous old abolitionist in “Lincoln.”

Who should win:

Burnham: I think Robert De Niro should win, because he showed an entirely new side in “Silver Linings Playbook,” and it’s his best role in more than a decade.

Crabtree: I think De Niro’s turn in “Silver Linings Playbook” is a nice return to form for an actor who seems to have lost his way in recent years.

Harrison: Christoph Waltz for bringing depth and subtlety to a Tarantino film, a rare and wondrous thing to behold.

Vincenty: Philip Seymour Hoffman should win for his “nonchanneling” of L. Ron Hubbard in “The Master.”

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win:

Burnham: Anne Hathaway, because she shaved her head and sang live in “Les Mis,” and she really, really wants it.

Crabtree: Kind of like Daniel Day Lewis, it has been determined that Anne Hathaway will win this award.

Harrison: Anne Hathaway, in part, because the Academy loves the backstory of her playing a role her mother played.

Vincenty: Anne Hathaway.

Who should win:

Burnham: Amy Adams in “The Master,” because she was gripping and terrifying; she’s a wildly underappreciated actress.

Crabtree: I’d like to see Jacki Weaver get it.

Harrison: Anne Hathaway.

Vincenty: Helen Hunt gives one of the most tender and touchingly humane performances as a sex therapist in “The Sessions.”

Biggest Snub

Burnham: The fact that Paul Thomas Anderson, Quentin Tarantino and Ben Affleck were not all nominated for Best Director is total injustice. It’s also terrible that Jamie Foxx and Samuel L. Jackson did not both get nominated for Best Actor for “Django.” I think it’s kind of odd that “The Dark Knight Returns” got completely shut out. Finally, and this is not a snub: the joyful, irresistible “Searching for Sugar Man,” nominated for Best Documentary, is better than a large percentage of what’s nominated for Best Picture and is one of the best films I’ve seen in recent years.

Crabtree: Everyone has noted that Ben Affleck was overlooked for Best Director, but what about Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty?” Bigelow’s latest was even better and more ambitious than “The Hurt Locker.” To me, it just seems illogical to exclude her in that category this year. Also, I would like to have seen Jason Clarke get a Best Supporting Actor nomination for “Zero Dark Thirty.”

Harrison: Tarantino and Ben Affleck for best director. Samuel L. Jackson for Best Supporting Actor for “Django Unchained” because he gave the most fascinating and layered performance of a slave ever captured on film. Jackson took Tarantino’s vision and went to the moon and back with it. His performance infused the movie with the same energy he injected into “Pulp Fiction.” He was robbed!

Vincenty: The obvious snub is the Academy’s dis of Ben Affleck as he has won every other directing award out there this season for “Argo.” However, Wes Anderson’s meticulous work in the 1960′s Kodachrome vision “Moonrise Kingdom” was the directing tour de force of the year. And with the most snubs for a single picture, “Bernie,” which received no nominations in any category, was the most original, well-acted and delightful American film this year.

 

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