Gadhafi may find that all roads lead to Rome

By Henri J. Barkey, Special to the BDN
Posted March 21, 2011, at 9:17 p.m.

Col. Moammar Gadhafi and his family must be busily looking for a new abode, just like his neighbors Zine el-Abidine ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak had to do recently. Where can the colonel go? Over the years he has cultivated, funded, entertained and lavished presents and prizes on many world leaders. Someone will surely spare him a place to pitch the tent he always travels with.

Gadhafi may not be a terribly ex-acting person, but he does have some minimum requirements: a relatively cheap piece of land for his tent, access to water, electricity and free Wi-Fi. With the international community and his own people searching for his stashed funds, he cannot afford ex-pensive locations. And his benefactor must be trustworthy and unlikely to rescind his refuge by sending  him packing back to Libya where the “cockroaches,” as he has called his opposition, can put him on trial.

So what are his options? Zimbabwe immediately comes to mind. The weather is perfect. President Robert Mugabe can be relied on to snub and stand up to the international commu-nity. But Mugabe is old and is un-popular at home. In fact, inspired by events in the Middle East, Zimbabwe-ans are also beginning to clamor for rights.

Saudi Arabia is another good choice, but only on paper. It has a desert climate, and people there have lots of experience with tents and a history of accommodating fallen dic-tators, such as the Ugandan Idi Amin. The colonel’s very good friend Ben Ali, after plunging into a stroke-induced coma, is presumably enjoy-ing the free and good health care Saudi Arabia is known for. The problem is that Gadhafi once tried to have the Saudi king killed; the latter may still be bearing a grudge.

Turkey is another possibility. Only this past December, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was awarded the Gadhafi Human Rights Prize. Erdogan, who had called on Mubarak to heed the will of his peo-ple, has shied away from doing so with Gadhafi. This is a true friend; it also helps, of course, to have thou-sands of Turkish workers trapped in Libya as potential hostages.

But Turkey is unreliable. Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir was disinvited as a guest by the Turks after Europeans and Americans raised objections even though Erdogan had vouched that Darfur was genocide free. Gadhafi may also face the added embarrassment that Erdogan, to look good to the outside world, may kick him out together with the human rights prize; with airlines charging for excess baggage these days, Gadhafi cannot afford to incur any additional luggage charges.

Venezuela, ruled by the indomita-ble Hugo Chavez, has already been rumored as a destination. Chavez stands by his friends — just ask Fidel. The Venezuelan would relish the op-portunity provided by the colonel’s presence to thumb his nose at “the empire” (the United States).

But Chavez comes with two pecu-liar problems. First is his penchant for the color red. He wears red shirts, red berets and his followers live in a sea of red. This would clearly clash with the colonel’s tastes. Have you ever seen Gadhafi wear anything but dull desert brown or pale green? The other problem is that Chavez keeps warning that the empire may invade Venezuela (he may be genuine ly wishing so). Gadhafi is not to be out-done when it comes to believing con-spiracy theories and therefore may worry about the prospect.

This leaves Gadhafi only one place, Silvio Berlusconi’s Italy. Berlusconi has been a best friend who seems to think that the colonel’s time is not up yet. In 2008, Berlusconi did promise $5 billion in reparations for Italy’s dec-ades-long occupation of Libya. Ber-lusconi has style, wonderful friends (many very young and even of North African ancestry). Berlusconi is not going anywhere; he bats away scan-dals as if they were flies (maybe even cockroaches). Gadhafi and certainly his son Saadi would feel very com-fortable there. Saadi even dabbled in Italian soccer, buying one of the premier league teams.

It is settled then. All roads lead to Rome.

Henri J. Barkey is a professor of international relations at Lehigh University and a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He wrote this for the Los Angeles Times.

http://bangordailynews.com/2011/03/21/opinion/contributors/gadhafi-may-find-that-all-roads-lead-to-rome/ printed on December 24, 2014