Based on current polling and demographic data, the New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight predicts that Republican Paul LePage will capture 43.7 percent of the November gubernatorial vote, Democrat Libby Mitchell will receive 41.7 percent of the vote and independent Eliot Cutler will get 12.0 percent.
You can get a more detailed look at the Maine numbers on this page of the FiveThirtyEight blog. The blog includes predictions for all gubernatorial and congressional races.
FiveThirtyEight, operated by Nate Silver and named for the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College, gained wide attention in 2008, when it correctly predicted several close races and for getting every Senate race right that year. In 2010, it correctly chose the winning presidential candidate in 49 of 50 states. The blog had been freestanding until last month, when it joined the Times.
In a blog post last week, Silver predicted Republicans were “on track to control approximately 30 governor seats after the Nov. 2 election.”
“Such an outcome would reverse the current state of the nation’s governors’ mansions, which are now held by 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent,” he wrote.
With Labor Day here, the campaigns will move into high gear, with many more announcements, events and advertisements. You can find an assessment of what’s coming here.